From Bust to Robust (Part 3)

Two weeks ago, we kicked off a multi-part series on elevating your betting from painful hemorrhaging money all the way through semiprofessional profit, step by step.

If you missed Part 1 or Part 2, give them a spin before reading this penultimate article.

Today’s newsletter (a day early because I’m traveling!) is a Part 3 of a four-part guide to becoming a consistently profitable sports bettor, incorporating the next stages of growth.

As always, we’ll look to continue our late-summer heater and close with another winning Bet of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Stage 3 – Knowledgeable Amateur (ROI -8% → -2%)

You’ve patched most leaks, but the book still wins a service charge.

• You’ve nailed the Stage 1 and 2 fixes:

  • You have multiple outs and routinely line-shop.

  • Infrequent parlays capped at three legs, no mega-favorites tacked on.

  • Free-bet conversions at +300 or longer.

  • Zero cash-outs or in-play hedges.

  • You steer clear of one-sided, 20% vig markets like “first TD scorer”.

Where you’re at:

• Your bets are dominated by straight wagers and low-hold ladders: spreads, totals, and player props in major team sports often priced around -110 with some alt lines mixed in.

• You get satisfaction out of finding the best line before placing a bet, and have accounts with FanDuel, DraftKings, ESPN Bet, NoVig, and Kalshi.

• Because of some well-timed promotions, you’ve gotten into betting golf. You mix in some “Top-5/Top-10” golf placings from an “expert” who sold you a picks package on X. You’re not sure if you’ll be a winner, but having a few golfers in the mix makes Sundays more fun.

• With NFL season coming up, you’re planning a big bet on Houston to win the Super Bowl at 35-1. C.J. Stroud is your boy!

What Has to Be True

Congratulations — you’re an above-average bettor (but not yet a winner).

1. Most of your bets face “standard” 4.5% vig or better. By choosing the right markets, limiting parlays, and finding the best price among five sportsbooks (including exchanges/prediction markets), you’re finally playing a winnable game.

2. Your indulgences are less damaging (though they still drag down your results). By replacing your “cash-out” habit with some higher-hold bets that span more than one day (golf Top-5 at 18% hold, NFL Super Bowl futures at 20% overround), you’re keeping your loss rate in the single digits.

3. You’re paying for betting advice that’s streaky but lacks market edge. The vast majority of people selling betting advice do not have the results to back up their claims, and golf is a challenging market. This is probably fool’s gold.

Monthly Snapshot

Your Typical Ticket

How to level up

Here’s how we’ll get to break-even (!!).

1) Get ruthless about betting into markets with a synthetic hold of ~0. If you’re flipping coins with sportsbooks instead of paying a tax, and you find even a tiny edge from analysis, your baseline is now positive.

Understand how to calculate house edge in all markets, including multi-way markets and futures.

2) Stop paying for betting advice unless it’s verified. This can be a big leak for bettors on the path to winning. Most touts are frauds. Even if they can win, it’ll take skill to use their edge profitably.

Learn how to assess the legitimacy of a pick seller, and where to find winners.

3) Make golf bets that are easier to beat. Remove the double-digit vig you’re facing in “Top-5/Top-10” or “Outright Winner” markets in golf by betting matchups on a retail book, or by moving to an exchange.

Review the guide to making smart golf bets to dial in your market selection.

If you’ve done all this, you’ll reach Stage 4—a majestic land where your betting will not lose over a large sample and will gradually drift into consistent wins. Every promotion, new sign-up bonus and sustainable betting angle you find will stack up into the green. Things are getting real!

We’ll have a longer piece next week that covers this stage and beyond — don’t miss it.

Bet of the Week $$

Our WNBA under bet won with nary a scare, as the Dream and Sky combined for 151 points, covering the 161.5-point total by 10 full points (!!). This again won us one half-unit; I hope you joined in!

With that win, since starting the newsletter, bets given out in this section are now ahead 19.4 units (an all-time high), at a positive 22% ROI. A $100 bettor would be ahead $1,940! We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week:

• Golden State Valkyries +1.5 @-115 on BetMGM for 0.5 units

Here’s my short case for GS Valkyries +1.5 tonight.

The market has this as a near coin flip with a low total around 151–152, which makes every spread point for the underdog potentially meaningful.

Golden State is 2–0 vs. Washington this season, and both wins were by a combined three points.

Washington lists Shakira Austin (leg injury) questionable, a swing piece for their rim protection and glass. I expect her to be limited or out, which would nudge the matchup toward the dog.