Legendary sweat. Terrible bet.

Two weeks ago, betting influencer “Cody Brown Bets” posted a 12-leg, “one leg per game lotto” NFL parlay that won and returned $1,121 on a $20 bet at +5507 (≈55:1).

That’s a fun rail for anyone who participated.

It’s also a case study in why big multi-leg parlays are mathematically horrible for the bettor, even when each leg looks “safe” and makes sense.

Today, as the Robin Hood of sports betting, taking from the books and giving to the bettors, I’ll show you why I think this winning bet is an example of what not to do.

I’ll cover the math in plain English, how this plays on human psychology, and what to do instead if you want long-odds upside without lighting half your stake on fire.

As always, we’ll keep our winning ways and close with this week’s Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

What Cody Bet

Cody’s bet was a 12-leg parlay covering every NFL game in Week 5. The legs were as follows:

Legs (12):

1. Drake Maye — 200+ passing yards

2. David Montgomery — anytime touchdown

3. Ladd McConkey — 4+ receptions

4. Baker Mayfield — 200+ passing yards

5. Marvin Harrison Jr. — 40+ receiving yards

6. Derrick Henry or Woody Marks — anytime touchdown

7. J.K. Dobbins — 40+ rushing yards

8. Jake Ferguson — 30+ receiving yards

9. Jonathan Taylor — anytime touchdown

10. Tetairoa McMillan — 50+ receiving yards

11. Chris Olave — 5+ receptions

12. Justin Jefferson — 50+ receiving yards

The betting slip went viral after FanDuel amplified it (already suspicious), as thousands allegedly tailed this bet and celebratory posts popped up everywhere.

The debate that followed on X was: “epic hit” vs. “huge house-edge lottery ticket.”

This piece is the math-first view.

How I Assessed the Bet

To opine on the expected value of this bet, we need to compare the odds Cody received (55 to 1), with the true odds of these 12 events all happening.

Here’s how I approached it:

First, I anchored every player to Week 5 closing markets—yardage O/Us, reception O/Us, and anytime touchdown prices.

Then I “de‑vigged” each leg to get fair hit rates for the specific events.

For the “X+” alt lines (like 50+ receiving yards), I used conservative, position‑typical variance to translate base lines into a probability for the alt threshold when I didn’t have easy data available.

This gave me a fair probability and price for all 12 of those events taking place in unison.

Interestingly, each individual leg was more than 58% likely to happen. They all looked “safe”.

Here is the output:

We’ve got fair price/probability estimates on each leg of this parlay, great — what’s next?

The Issue of Compounding

This parlay was filled with bets that felt good. They seemed very winnable, and most land in the 60–75% band of likelihood.

What’s the catch, you ask?

Here’s the trap: compounding.

If you multiply a dozen 60–75% events together, because a parlay requires all of them to win, the true probability plunges. Take a look:

While each individual leg is fairly likely, the entirety of all events will happen less than 1% of the time based on my math. 0.84% to be specific.

(For a quick refresher on parlay math, read my overview here.)

The Underpaid Bundle (Why FanDuel Loves this Bet)

As a reminder, Cody’s ticket paid +5507, or a little more than 55 to 1.

The fair price, however, was about +11,900. The book paid about half of what the risk truly deserved.

The expected profit on a $20 wager with these odds is –$10.60 (–53% ROI).

When you place bets like this, FanDuel (or their competition) will keep more than half (!!) of your money over time. Yikes.

I realize in this case, the card hit. That doesn’t change the fact it was priced like a Fiji Water at an airport kiosk.

For this to be a positive expectation bet, our boy Cody would need to be twice as sharp as a very efficient market across 12 unique NFL games! 

Respectfully, he is not that.

Why Cody’s Content Misleads

The biggest issues I have with Cody’s bet inspiring new bettors are as follows:

• One book = bad prices. Parlays force you to accept one shop’s number on every leg you bet. Even if a couple legs were the best price in town (they weren’t), you lose the ability to line shop the best price per bet. This is worth a lot.

• Bundled vig. Every leg of any parlay has a margin for the book built in. Alt props and touchdown bets like those Cody chose carry heavier juice, and when you bundle them, the margin stacks. The house edge compounds inside the parlay which is how we ended up with a 50% house edge instead of the ~5% we’d find on each prop individually.

• Variance ≠ value. Big payouts feel great. They’re exciting! But the price is typically far shorter than fair, so long‑run ROI goes negative even if you occasionally hit a highlight.

Cody’s framing of “one leg per game” feels like a thoughtful framework to recreational bettors. But it induces them to buy a severely underpaid bundle.

That’s why the clip went viral and FanDuel amplified it.

Creators who drive big multi‑leg volume are assets to the book, not partners to the bettors.

When Long Odds Make Sense

I’m not anti‑longshot or anti-fun. I’m a degenerate at heart!

I am anti‑overpaying.

If you want the upside of winning 50x your bet, I’d look to bet a “tail” outcome that you believe is more likely than it’s being priced.

I’ll make a few of these bets via price-shopping SGPs on Juice Reel each week (often inspired by the research of Judah Fortgang). Use boosts if you can!

Counterintuitively, a bet that needs one miracle to win is typically priced much more fairly than a bet requiring 10+ likely events.

Now let’s get to the betting action!

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week our winning ways continued!

We had a 3-rung ladder on the Jets to keep the game close (+7.5), closer (+4) and win (money line).

They did two of the three, tragically losing the game by two, but winning us 1.66 full units!

With that outcome, we’re at an all-time high!

Since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 22.1 units, with a positive 21% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bet this week (non-futures):

• Bengals +6.5 @ -113 on Kalshi for 1 unit (Tonight)

I like the opportunity to get this many points with a home divisional underdog in a game with a relatively low total (44.5). Short-week games often feature weaker offense, and I am betting on veteran Joe Flacco to keep the Bengals close in his second week with their system.

• Falcons +2.5 @ -112 on DraftKings for 1 unit (Sunday night)

San Francisco’s defense is depleted (Nick Bosa ACL, Fred Warner ankle), and Atlanta’s Bijan-driven offense just put up 443 yards with Robinson at 170 yards on MNF. Getting nearly a field goal in this game, paired with SF’s uncertainty at QB, is attractive to me and fits my long-term thesis that Michael Penix is developing into an excellent QB.