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As the Baltimore Orioles take on the Cleveland Guardians, earned run props highlight today’s sharpest betting value. With Joey Cantillo’s run suppression and Brandon Young’s recent volatility, there’s an opportunity to capitalize on pitching trends. Let’s break down the top plays for both starting arms.
Game Preview: Orioles vs Guardians Player Prop Bets
Cleveland sends lefty Joey Cantillo to the mound with solid run-prevention form, while Baltimore counters with Brandon Young, who has struggled with consistency. The contrasting pitching profiles provide clear over/under angles worth targeting.
Orioles vs Guardians: Player Props
Joey Cantillo Player Prop
Cantillo brings a season average of just 0.79 earned runs allowed, and he’s stayed under the 1.5 line in 7 of his last 10 outings. Despite a couple of blow-up starts, he’s posted zeros in six appearances this season, showing control and poise in shorter outings.
- Season Average: 0.79 earned runs allowed
- Recent Game Log: 7 of last 10 under 1.5 earned runs
- Best Value: Under 2.5 at -185 (Fliff)
- Trend: Six shutouts in 10 starts
Joey Cantillo Player Prop
Cantillo averages just 2.25 strikeouts per appearance but has suddenly found swing-and-miss stuff, racking up 5, 7, and 6 Ks in his last three games. That surge represents a major jump in form, though the line of 6.5 may be steep against a Baltimore team that doesn’t strike out often.
- Season Average: 2.25 strikeouts
- Recent Game Log: Last 3 games: 5, 7, 6 strikeouts
- Best Value: Under 6.5 at -135 (DraftKings)
- Note: 3 of first 7 starts had 1 K or fewer — recent spike may regress
Brandon Young Player Prop
Young averages 3.67 earned runs allowed and has gone over the 2.5 line in 7 of his last 10 starts, including a seven-run blowup against Miami on July 13. His higher WHIP and hit totals per game indicate ongoing struggles with command and run prevention.
- Season Average: 3.67 earned runs allowed
- Recent Game Log: 7 of last 10 over 2.5 earned runs
- Best Value: Under 2.5 at -115 (DraftKings)
- Trend: 4+ ER in 4 of last 6 appearances
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