We’re entering Week 3 of the NFL season and we actually know a lot about the typical range of outcomes for slow starting squads.

Ten teams are 0–2, and history says this week is massive: since 2002, only 13.3% of 0–2 teams make the playoffs, and just 3.1% climb out from starting 0–3.

Even with the expanded postseason, a loss for a winless team this week is a nearly terminal diagnosis.

Because of this early-season pressure, I like to analyze trends for teams with their backs against the wall, and see if any historical patterns can credibly inform winning opportunities today.

So this week we’ll first discuss how I size up trends, we’ll apply that framework to an applicable pattern, and we’ll assess the teams indicated.

As always, we’ll use what we learned to fire off this week’s NFL Bets of the Week!

Let’s get after it.

Analyzing Trends: Signal or Noise?

Here is the three-factor framework I’ll use to assess if a trend is worth my attention:

1. Time Horizon and Sample Size: How long has this trend been happening? What’s the sample size, and how big of an outlier are we seeing? If a trend is based on 20 years of data, is there enough consistency in the team/players/circumstances for it to be meaningful? A trend that’s held true for a few weeks might be a fluke, while one that’s persisted for several seasons could have real value. Given my background in betting and poker, I can often gauge this intuitively, but I’ll sometimes use tools like these to validate my assumptions.

    

2. Cause and Effect: Can we explain the trend with a credible hypothesis? Is it related to coaching tendencies, weather, travel, or rule changes? A trend without a logical explanation is more likely to be coincidental. For example, if certain types of games consistently go over or under the total, or if a team overperforms in specific situations (like after a bye week), I’d like to be able to explain why with a theory that makes sense.

    

3. Sportsbook Adjustment: Have the books “priced in” the trend or even overcorrected? Any trend that says “bet over the total in circumstance X and you’ll make money” is vulnerable to adjustment by sportsbooks to eliminate whatever edge might exist. The key is to find trends that the books haven’t fully accounted for yet. I’ll use tools like Juice Reel to look at line movement and distribution of bets in order to form an opinion on if the books have “caught up”.

Next, let’s use this approach to size up a powerful early season trend.

Winless Road (Under)Dogs

What it is: Teams that have yet to win and play on the road as underdogs.

Since 2000, these “winless road dogs” are more than 59% against the spread over a nearly 400-game sample. This trend is 14-5 against the spread since the start of last season.

Let’s apply the framework to see if this pattern is worth our time:

1. Sample size? Strong! We’ve got a multi-decade baseline plus recent corroboration. It is extremely unlikely this result would come from chance alone.

    

2. Driving Mechanism? I can form a credible hypothesis that might cause this pattern. For example: the NFL is built on parity, yet early-season betting (and thus pricing) can be perception-heavy. A winless team catching points on the road could easily be systematically undervalued relative to true power, especially early on.

    

3. Priced in? Given how long this pattern has gone on, I imagine it’s somewhat priced into modern lines, but even if the edge isn’t the full historical ~59–60% anymore, we don’t need that. With modern sportsbook competition and line-shopping, even-money bets that win ~53% of the time will produce profit. I’m comfortable assuming a modest but non-zero edge in this trend if we are disciplined about pricing.

Finally, let’s review the actual NFL teams that fit the bill:

Who qualifies this week?

Winless road dogs on this week’s slate include the Jets, Texans, Saints, and Dolphins.

If you want to go deep on the state of those teams, Bill Barnwell wrote a thoughtful overview of everyone sitting at 0-2.

Here are some quick bullets I found relevant:

• Jets — Their offense cratered last week (0-for-11 on 3rd down). They’ll be starting a backup QB in Tyrod Taylor, but that helps historically (backup QBs went 5–1 ATS in a comparable week).

• Texans — They’ve had narrow losses; their protection and execution against pressure are still a mess despite offseason spend. This team had playoff aspirations coming into the year.

• Saints — Spencer Rattler has made eight career starts at QB now, and has yet to win. This team was expected to struggle, and may not feel the urgency of a true contender, but they are unlikely to attract public money.

• Dolphins — After a putrid first week, the Dolphins played much better in Week 2. They came within a couple of feet of De’Von Achane scoring a touchdown to take the lead with less than two minutes in the game.

I’ll recommend three of this teams to act on below, but as a reminder, making bets that might be good at great prices is a winning way to operate, so I wouldn’t fault bettors for choosing any or all of the four potential wagers.

Bet(s) of the Week $$

Last week we got back on track, as our “Wong” teaser won both legs with ease.

The Colts and Bucs won outright as underdogs, and we didn’t have to sweat the final (exciting) drives in either case because our teased lines provided a touchdown of breathing room. We won 0.9 units.

Inclusive of that win, since starting the newsletter, bets in this section are ahead 17.7 units, with a positive 18% ROI. We’ll update this regularly.

Based on my research, I am making the following bets this week:

• Dolphins +13 @-120 on BetRivers for 1 unit (Game is tonight)

• Jets +7 @-115 on DraftKings for 1 unit

• Saints +7.5 @-110 on BetMGM for 1 unit

I omitted the Texans from our list above because they’re a much smaller underdog (sitting at +1.5) and I found their late-game coaching decisions pretty disappointing last week against the Bucs.

Otherwise I’m seeking the best price on the winless road dogs as described above.